I sure know how to pick 'em

Two of my top three pics for Democratic presidential nominee have since dropped out.

I will have it noted for the record, however, that my picks lasted longer than McD's pick.

I think we're both united behind Edwards at this point, which means we're suckers to the end.

Forgot to note ...

We finally got the window on the French doors fixed on Monday. Took a whole week, when finally the property manager took care of it herself. The fellow was here for all of 30 minutes--if even that.

Sir Edmund Hillary

"I discovered that even the mediocre can have adventures and even the fearful can achieve. I had the world beneath my clumsy boots and saw the red sun slip over the horizon after the dark Antarctic winter. But for me the most rewarding moments have not always been the great moments, for what can surpass a tear on your departure, joy on your return, and a trusting hand in yours?"

Sir Edmund Hillary
July 20, 1919 – January 11, 2008

Donate to the Himalayan Trust

New Zealand Share (Stock) Market

has been down every day this year ... if (and by that I mean when) it ends the day down today, that will be 14 days in a row. The NZ market index has lost 19% of its value from its high in October.

This is an especially bad bit of timing, as NZ has introduced its new 'Kiwi Saver' scheme, which is similar to the US IRA/401(k) plan. Thousands of people have enrolled, and most likely all of them have seen the value of their contributions fall. In the US, we're mostly accustomed to riding out the market and watching the values of our investments rise and fall over the short-term, but rise over the long-term. I wonder about the psychological blow to new investors when they realize that they would have been better off keeping their Kiwi Saver money under the mattress (or at least in a regular savings account). Is it going to discourage a lot of people from ever investing again?

Oh, there's also been some other news here.

More housing information

Demographia has just released its latest International Housing Affordability Survey. While some of their numbers come out a little different than those I've blogged about before, there aren't any surprises in it. The numbers reflect other surveys that I've seen, and some of the back-of-the-envelope calculations I've done myself. Once again, the numbers come out very poorly for NZ.

Auckland, Wellington, and Chch all appear on the list of the 50 least affordable cities in the surveyed countries, which includes NZ, Australia, the UK, Canada, and the US. To put it into perspective, the US cities that appear on the list are the expensive California cities (LA, San Fran, San Jose, etc.), Honolulu, West Palm Beach, NYC, and Boston--so no surprises there, either.

The 50 most affordable cities are all in the US (37 of 50) and Canada (13 of 50).

The survey compares median housing prices and median income to calculate affordability.

There are two things that those results do not reflect are interest rates and the quality of the housing. A 5/1 ARM is running about 10% here in NZ versus 5.25% for a similar mortgage in the US. Though closing costs are generally lower here, over the lifetime of the loan, the difference means literally tens of thousands of dollars.

As for the quality of NZ homes, it's generally poor by US standards (and from what my friends tell me, by UK standards too). Construction, fit and finish, and amenities are not commensurate with those one would find in US homes. Insulation, central heating, and double glazed windows are still largely 'luxury' items, generally found in only in more expensive homes.

This is how the story is playing in NZ and in Australia.

We've met lots of terrific people here in NZ

We've met lots of terrific people here in NZ and made some friends that I know we will miss when we leave.

The strange thing about it is that they've almost all been from the UK, or the US, or elsewhere.

We made the acquaintance of a wonderful couple today, the husband from South Africa and his wife from Australia. We've met a dozen folks from the UK ... all of the wonderful, warm, generous people. The fellow expat Americans we've met have been terrific, talented people too.

Hopefully I can fit them all in the container when we go back.

Going Home

Well, I think most of you have already been told, but for those who don't already know, we are headed back to the US, and in all likelihood, back to NH.

It looks right now like we'll be back in the US sometime around June 1st. That's our tentative date, though it doesn't seem likely to move too much in either direction.

Debi's been talking to her former employer--for whom she's been working as a contractor--about returning to the office. I'll be applying for education jobs in the area too, since I've got many contacts there.

The reasons for going back are as complex as the reasons for coming here in the first place. Going into it, we knew it was an adventure and an experiment. The original plan was to give it a go for 2-3 years, then decide what our next step would be.

Unfortunately, that hasn't proven to be realistic.

First of all, I haven't found a job. One phrase sums up the advice I've received since I've been here: start again. Without going into too much detail, there have been some changes here that has made hiring over-seas trained teachers both easier and more difficult. Unfortunately, since I'm not a math or science or technology teacher, I've been told I'm pretty much looking at 1-2 years before I could expect to find a teaching job.

I could probably find work in another field, but one thing that I've realized over the past six months is that I don't really want to do anything else. I liked what I was doing back at Epping, and dealing with not being engaged in the work that I left behind has been difficult.

Secondly, the long-term economics of the move aren't proving to be viable. Obviously, not having a job is not helping, but real estate prices are through the roof here, interest rates are going up, inflation is high ... Yeah, NZ is on the precipice of the same problems the US is facing. I'm much more confident in our ability to deal with a recession back in the US than our ability to deal with it here in NZ.

That's the tip of the iceberg ... as I said, the reasons for returning are pretty complex and I'll probably get into them more in the future.

French Doors, Part Trois

Well, tomorrow will make it one week to the day since the window broke. No sign of the landlord. The realtor had an open house yesterday, and my schaudenfreuda regrets not being here to see the expression on her face when she saw the giant piece of cardboard and 8 yards of duct tape covering the massive hole in the back door.

We could call the property manager *again*, but in another week it's not our problem.

Strange weather here today

Well, I guess actually I should write 'stranger than usual weather here today.'

It's 90 degrees ... and windy. Unfortunately, it's not a seabreeze, so it's still 90.

NZ--Love it or leave it.

I guess now it's official government policy:

Cullen tells emailer to join NZers in Aussie

Finance Minister Michael Cullen told a man who was worried about how many people were moving to Australia to "please join them".

The abrupt remark surprised Bay of Plenty businessman and National Party member John Middleton, who had emailed Dr Cullen a link to a report on nzherald.co.nz saying the number of people moving to Australia had hit a 19-year high.

IF you want a glimpse of life here in NZ, check out the comments on the story. It provides a nice little picture of what Kiwis themselves think about NZ, as well as the absolutely rabid defenses some make.

French Doors, Part Deux

So, two days have passed since Monday night's French Door Incident. Property manager was called promptly Tuesday morning, and again yesterday. We've been assured the landlord is going to take care of it.

This is me not holding my breath. After all, he's probably just swinging by the hardware store to pick up a heatpump and the parts to fix the security system too, and that's what's keeping him.

Laid back lifestyle? See, this is where I was wrong. I always thought 'no worries' meant 'Don't worry, I'll take care of it.' I've come to find out it really means 'Don't worry and maybe the problem will just go away.'

Of course, the joke is ultimately on him, since the real estate agent is having an open house again this Saturday. (Because there's no MLS--multiple listing system--here, they rely on ads and open houses.) She's going to love the giant piece of cardboard I've had to duct tape to the door. But, then again, she'll probably just rewrite the ad to highlight the house's 'airy feel' and 'good indoor/outdoor flow.'

Deep thoughts ... by Mark Twain

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.

- Mark Twain

You stay classy, Indianapolis

Patriots to honor young fan booed in Indy

FOXBOROUGH, Mass.—Patriots owner Robert Kraft sat behind his wide desk and marveled at how his team's jersey could be the target of so many boos -- even when it's worn by a 14-year-old girl.
more stories like this

This wasn't Randy Moss or Rodney Harrison hearing the catcalls. They're used to it.

This was Anna Grant, a high school freshman who had worked hard to win the Punt, Pass & Kick competition in her age group as the team's representative.

When she was introduced along with the other winners before the fourth quarter of San Diego's playoff win last Sunday, she was the only one booed by the crowd in Indianapolis, home of New England's fiercest rival.

"Why should a champion be booed?" the boss of the three-time Super Bowl winners said Tuesday. "She won an intensive competition. She's supposed to be honored."

Not sure I could add anything to that ... the story speaks for itself, doesn't it?

French Doors + High Winds = Nothing Good

When we first moved in, I saw those French doors, with their window-size panes of glass and thought, 'Nothing good will come of this.'

Well, nothing good finally arrived. Okay, I guess I should say before I go any further, no one got hurt.

The boys were running in and out, and of course left the door half open. A big gust of wind came, and blew one of the doors shut, causing the glass in the top of the other door to shatter. Fortunately, the kids were nowhere near it when it happened.

Haven't written on this in a while

Apparently, it takes a while for news to travel from the US to NZ. Why else wouldn't they understand why this stuff is a bad idea?

Working Lives: 100 per cent loan on Kiwi dream

The couple are among a growing number of first home buyers who are willingly taking on huge financial burdens by borrowing 100 per cent of the cost of their homes.

"Going back three or four years, 100 per cent mortgages were only available through non-conforming type entities and second-tier lenders," says Mortgage Brokers Association chairman Geoff Bawden.

"Now you have a situation where most, if not all, of the mainstream bank players are able to offer 100 per cent funding on reasonable terms."

Most brokers put 100 per cent loans at around 5 to 10 per cent of all new mortgages. Mike Pero Mortgages chief executive Sandra Pigram says they are 10 to 15 per cent of her business.

Westpac has recently gone further and offered to consolidate borrowers' existing debts into mortgages worth up to 110 per cent of the value of a house, although its housing product manager Mike Davy cautions: "There is no guarantee that they will get the 110 per cent mortgage and there is no formal policy around it. It's assessed on a case-by-case basis."

Easier financing has helped to push up house prices. Although brokers say they aim for mortgage payments of no more than 30 to 35 per cent of household incomes, the Reserve Bank says the average is now nudging 50 per cent.

Remember, too, that here in NZ, nearly all loans are ARMS. Many adjust after the first two years. Interest rates have been going up here, and are predicted to go up another 1 to 2 points over the coming year. Currently they are at about 10%, and inflation is coming in at about 4%, though like in the US food and gas prices have risen at a higher rate.

The news article focuses on a particular couple. They have a, uh, rosy attitude:

Mr Bowie says house prices were rising beyond their capacity to pay: "If we didn't do it soon, we probably never would have been able to afford to do it. Worst case scenario, if we had to come out in six months, hopefully we can make a bit from what we spent."

It's like a bad movie.

Well now ...

at least I don't have to worry about who to root for in the Superbowl.

NYG 21-DAL 17.

While I'm not happy the 'Boys are out, at least I can take some perverse pleasure in the fact that Eli is in while Peyton is out ...

NZ Currency and Swedish Rounding

In NZ, there are no pennies or 1 cent coins. Coins in NZ come in 10 cent, 20 cent, 50 cent, 1 dollar, and 2 dollar varieties. Bills come in 5, 10, and 20 dollar denominations. I assume there are larger bills, but I've never seen them. ;)

But, when you go to the store, prices don't all end in 0. So if something is advertised as $19.99, it's really $20.00 ... but only if you are paying cash. If you pay by credit card or EFTPOS (the NZ equivalent of the debit card), then you pay $19.99.

To determine the cash price, NZ has generally adopted what is referred to as Swedish Rounding. (Sorry, but unlike other things described by the word 'Swedish', this isn't particularly exciting.) 'I don't think this is official government policy, but rather just the accepted practice. Under Swedish Rounding, cash transactions for totals ending in 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 are rounded down to the nearest ten cent value or, essentially, 0. Everything else is rounded up to the next ten cent value.

It would be an interesting study to examine transactions to see if they conform to what the mathematical formula predicts, or if not, why not. If I were really so inclined, I could go through my bank statements and do a little analysis myself.

I also wonder if there's a way to game the system in the merchant's favor. Say, for example, that there are items that people generally come in to purchase without purchasing anything else, like packs of cigarettes. I bet if Wal-Mart had stores in NZ, they'd know how to do it.

The first time I encountered this system of rounding, it was something of a revelation. I'd never realized (or rather, been *taught*) that there were other ways of rounding. To round 5 down to 0 seemed to me as strange as saying that sometimes 1 + 1 = 3. I don't think that teaching kids who are just learning rounding that sometimes you do and sometimes you don't, but you would figure that buy the time I was learning cosines or logarithms or any thing else of that useless mathematical trivia, someone would have taught me that there are other rounding systems. In fact, before I encountered this, it never even occurred to me that in either system, rounding in one direction is favored, since the split is always going to be 4 to 5.

Boy, I could really use McD or MacD now!

Like mana from heaven ...

As I was writing my last post, some Kiwi wingnut was writing this:

I think your concerns about your son's education are very real. It just confirms my suspicions that NZ Schools are in the grip of socialist clap trap. NZ Schools are social havens where emphasis is placed on participation rather than results. It doesn't matter that bright kids are being stifled - what's more important is that everyone feels good and that everyone in the class is at the same level of it's slowest and least capable member. Bright kids get restless and bored - they are diagnosed with ADHD and are pumped full of ritalin to make them the subserviant, underacheiving, brainwashed little robots they should be. It's frightening but sadly true.

As for the gay marriage - I'm against it being given the same status as a hetrosexual marriage. In it's most basic form marriage is a union between male and female that produces offspring thereby adding to the continuing repopulation of a country. Obviously with a gay marriage this does not occur. The socialists now have books in Schools that are about gay marriages. Of course they are written in such a charming way with wonderful illustrations that grab chidren's imaginations. A certain dictator knew the value of spouting propoganda to his nation's children. It worked. In America, some kindergartens have decided to show toddlers how to put condoms onto cucumbers. The evil protaginists of this obscene practice state that children are never too young to recieve sex education....Yes I do think the civil union bill was a huge tremor in the fabric of NZ society. You may find it hard to believe but NZ is still a fairly conservative nation - the legislation was hurried through, again without a referendum.....believe me these socialists have an agenda and they won't stop now. They'll keep drip feeding you until you accept it.

The Arkansas of the South Pacific indeed ...

Oh my god!

Political Correctness Gone Mad!

Yes, people here really think this way.

If you look at some of the articles, you'll see that, apparently, *everything* is political correctness. This is my favorite, because it points out the absolute foolishness of the NZ right's labeling of anything they don't agree with as being 'PC'.

I think Labour's big deficit in the polls is indicative of a long-term trend here in NZ. The country is becoming more conservative, in part because of migration. Educated Kiwi's are leaving, and the majority of immigrants into NZ are from China, India, and the UK. Most of the UK expats I know here (mostly on-line acquaintances) will tell you that among the reasons they left the UK is their native country's immigration policy ('overrun by Muslims' is a common meme) and because the UK was 'too PC'. (Yeah, it appears they still use that over there, too.)

I'm currently reading Chris Trotter's 'No Left Turn', which is about the political and economic history of NZ. It's very similar to Howard Zinn's 'A People's History of the United States', and after reading both, one could draw many parallels between the histories of both countries. Once I've finished I'll give a full book report, but right now all I can say is that reading Trotter's books has provided me with some context for what I'm seeing around me, and it's troubling. Looking back at the last 20 years in the US, it's easy to see the erosion of the social contract. (Hopefully the tide is turning in the US--heck, even Mike Huckabee's economic populism scares the establishment right.) I think the next 20 years in NZ could make the backward steps we've taken in the US look tame by comparison, mostly because, if Trotter is correct, the 'social contract' here in NZ was really nothing more than a thin veneer.

But, I'm getting ahead of myself. Let me finish the book, then I'll report.

John Herman, New Media Mogul

New Media Mogul and former colleague of mine, John Herman, is clearly destined for greatness ....

He hosts Energy Smackdown, which was just written up in the CS Monitor. I can totally see this running on HGTV.

My LTTE

I have to say that I was absolutely sickened by the comments of Ministry of Education spokesman Iain Butler when he described efforts to attract over-seas trained teachers to come to New Zealand. If he had been honest, he would have used the word 'trap,' because that, in fact, is what NZIS and Teach NZ have done. They've laid out the bait, but when teachers come to NZ from overseas, the spring is sprung when they find themselves unable to find suitable work, work that is commensurate with their experience and talents.

I have 15 years experience as both a teacher and an administrator. I applied for every single teaching job in the Chch area for which I was qualified, both LTR and permanent positions. I was short-listed and interviewed ... well, never. Over two dozen packets, and no interviews. Never in my career have so many applications yielded so few prospects.

Sadly, when I talk to other overseas-trained teachers, their stories reflect my experience. Many talk of 18-24 months spent relief teaching before landing a permanent position. This may be fine for those entering the profession, but for mid-career professionals, this is a waste of talent.

So when I see that the Min Ed is conspiring with NZIS to lure more teachers here, I am both puzzled and disgusted.

Teacher shortage?

From Septempber, 2007:

Primary Teacher Shortfall Reaches 1000

Schools warned to adopt "culture change" to avert classroom crisis.

Almost 1000 primary school classes could be without a teacher next year as the government scrambles to make good on a pre-election promise to drop class sizes.

In May, the number of students in each new entrants class is set to drop from 23 to 18, meaning at least 700 more teachers are needed.

But the shortfall could rocket to 930, according to Ministry of Education reports obtained by the National Party under the Official Information Act.

Areas under most pressure will be Auckland and Waikato while many teachers looking for work lived in the South Island, the documents said.

One of the reports, from April this year, showed Education Minister Steve Maharey's staff have warned him that "approximately two thirds of the 700 (extra) positions will not be able to be filled" without importing teachers from overseas.

Hmm....

Career Derailed After Good Start

Melissa Banks would like nothing better than to spend her days in a classroom, but finding a job in a New Zealand school has proved so difficult she is about to leave the country.

Banks, 25, graduated from Teachers' College in Christchurch in 2003 and headed overseas to teach in England.

"I wanted to do my OE and I thought a teaching degree would stand me in good stead in the UK," she said.

"I travelled around teaching at lots of different schools, which gave me loads of new skills and experience, as well as seeing a bit of the world."

After 18 months, Banks returned to New Zealand hoping to continue her career, but after a good start she has found it almost impossible to get a job.

"I got a job at Avonhead Primary School relieving the deputy principal in her classroom, and I did some other relieving work there as well, which was really great," she said.

"But unfortunately, after a year they could not keep me on.

"After that I applied for bucketloads of jobs and sent out loads of CVs, but although I got a lot of interviews I couldn't get a job. There always seemed to be someone with more experience."

Despite having some experience, Banks is still classed as a beginning teacher, meaning schools have to put in extra resources to help her.

"I can totally see where they (schools) are coming from," she said. "It is easier for them to employ someone with experience, but that doesn't help new teachers. There are loads of good new teachers out there."

Banks is now working as a restaurant manager in Akaroa and plans to go back to Britain to continue her teaching career.

It seems that this young woman's experience is not so out of the ordinary. In fact, it seems to be the rule rather than the exception:

Many graduates fail to get work

New teachers are still struggling to find jobs, despite an apparent shortage of primary teachers.

A report from the Education Ministry's demographic and statistical analysis unit showed that from 2001 to 2006, only half of primary teacher graduates each year have managed to find a job three years after graduating.

Only about a third found a job straight after graduating.

The report, released to the National Party under the Official Information Act, said the employment rate for graduates was not expected to rise above 65 per cent because it was too difficult for schools to employ them in large numbers.

Ideally, the report said, beginning teachers should make up no more than 15% of a school's teaching staff.

Increasing the percentage of beginning teachers in the workforce was "neither practical nor desirable", it said.

About 730 extra teachers would be needed to reduce Year 1 class sizes. However, those teachers needed to be experienced enough to teach new entrants, which the report said was "generally not a task entrusted to beginning teachers".

Beginning teachers do not have a full workload and more experienced teachers must take time out of teaching to mentor the new graduates during their two years as provisionally registered teachers. This can make schools reluctant to employ them.

National Party education spokeswoman Katherine Rich said the figures were shocking.

"I think the Education Minister needs to have a good look at these figures. If we don't work harder to place these graduates, we run the risk of losing them altogether," she said.

"I'm not advocating any one particular solution, but this is a huge problem and we need to look at something to reduce the number of graduates going into other roles."

The problem would worsen as the workforce aged and teachers retired, Rich said.

Ministry spokesman Iain Butler said the rate of graduates entering the profession was expected to increase this year as primary teacher supply tightened, but schools would still be constrained by the number of beginning teachers they could employ.

"For that reason, the ministry is trying to assist schools to recruit New Zealand and overseas-trained teachers with prior experience to fill some of their vacancies," he said.

Initiatives include fast-tracking immigration for foreign teachers, retraining teachers who want to return to the profession and relocation deals for teachers who take jobs in hard-to-staff regions.

New Zealand Principals' Federation president Paddy Ford supported a centrally resourced scheme to keep teachers in the country.

"I recently advertised two jobs at my school and of the 24 applicants, 23 were beginning teachers. I can't employ them all," he said.

"The Government should look at something like attaching teachers to schools. It would be a great way for them to get experience and to keep those teachers in New Zealand."

Incentives to encourage overseas-based teachers to return to New Zealand were good, but he would rather see those teachers stay in the country in the first place.

I guess all I can say is What the fu ....

I can't point to a more perfect example of how New Zealand is, frankly, just trying to screw people. Yes, NZ immigration are the Used Care Dealers of the World. I applied for every single teaching job in Chch that I was qualified for, about 2 dozen or so, and had not one single interview. Not one. With 15 years of teaching experience.

A small secondary irony of this whole situation is that migrants are *actively encouraged* to settle in areas *outside* of Auckland and Wellington.

This place just pisses me off sometimes.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry ...

There are, in fact, Dunkin Donuts shops in New Zealand ... but they are all in Auckland.

So close, but so, so far away.

NZ's crazy war on drugs

Just a little rant: I can walk into a drug store and buy acetaminophen with codeine, but I can't buy any decongestant that has pseudoephedrine in it--since I might, you know, buy 300 of them, run some chemical processes on them, and get high. And we all know codeine can't get you high--I mean, it's not like its heroine or anything. I don't know ... maybe the junkies in NZ just lack imagination.

Thanks, NYC Educator

I found this video over at the excellent blog NYC Educator.

As they say, 'The more things change, the more they stay the same.'

Some more pics ...

Including X-Mas, the beach, and pictures of our neighborhood and local school.

Happy New Years

Boy, you people are *so* behind the times. It's been 2008 here for ages. ;)

Only because you asked

My 'endorsement' ...

1. Kucinich--the most liberal, and most human, of all the candidates
2. Edwards--the only one who I can actually see kicking big business's ass
3. Dodd--Gotta give love to my homies, which is a really funny way of putting it, because he's probably the most 'presidential' of the candidates.

99. Obama--now that he's decided to be a uniter very much in the tradition of GW.
100. Hillary Clinton--because she ain't no Bill.

If this were a prefect world, Clark would be in the race, too, but my prediction is that he's Hillary's pick for VP. (He'll provide cover for her for both the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, and for any independents who don't want to vote for any Republican but also need a reason to vote for Clinton.)

FWIW, I've actually made donations to all five of them, plus Richardson somewhere along the way.

Feel free to weigh in ...